Thoughts on Recent Market Volatility

Market VolatilityWhen global equity markets enter periods of elevated volatility like we’ve experienced recently, it’s wise to take a breath and gain some perspective. If equity markets were perfectly rational and priced new information efficiently, we would not see such periods of heightened volatility. In reality, equity markets can be quite inefficient and irrational over short-term time horizons as stock price volatility exacerbates intrinsic business value volatility. As investors, we focus more on intrinsic business value volatility, which is the present value of cash that a business is expected to generate in the future. Although market participants emphasize company earnings over the next quarter or year, we estimate that a years’ worth of company earnings represent about 5-7% of a company’s intrinsic business value. Short-term equity market volatility and inefficiencies exist because investors over-react to news that has little correlation to long-term intrinsic business value.

Continue reading